Latest Available Information

Contributors

This page last updated 2012/01/27 16:24:28 Cape Town Time = South African Standard Time - SAST = UT+2

CURRENT CONDITIONS: A C-class flare has been detected, expect fading. A coronal hole visible on the solar disk is rotating into a geo-effective position. Geomagnetic conditions are at quiet to unsettled levels. Local HF working frequencies are unstable to depressed from monthly average predicted values.

OUTLOOK: Propagation conditions should be disturbed and slightly elevated from predicted monthly average HF working frequencies. Region 1402 appears to be the most active region and more flare activity is likely to occur from this region.

Follow us on Twitter by clicking Here

THREE-DAY PREDICTIONS FOR THE SOUTHERN AFRICAN REGION

Current Sunspot Count: 55 (physical sunspots/area count - no relation to EM emission) - See WCI below for effective SSN for HF frequency prediction purposes.

	28-Jan-12	29-Jan-12	30-Jan-12
SSN	64	65	65
Solar Index (WCI for preds)Se*	87	76	78
T-Index**	-5 to 145/94	-5 to 145/88	-5 to 150/90
Solar Activity	low	low	low
Q_fe	4.4	3.4	3.4
A_p	8.0	5.0	5.0
Magnetic Conditions	Quiet to Unsettled	Quiet	Quiet
SA HF Comms Conditions	fair	fair	fair
SW Fadeouts	possible	possible	possible
MUFs***	unstable	unstable	unstable

Current T-Index(Hermanus) -	2012/01/27 16:00	SAST is	-18.9
Current T-Index(G/Town) -	2012/01/27 16:00	SAST is	5.7
Current T-Index(L/Vale) -	2012/01/26 04:45	SAST is	42.1
Current T-Index(Madimbo)-	2012/01/27 07:00	SAST is	23.7
Current foF2 (Hermanus) -	2012/01/27 14:00	UT is	6.375 MHz
Current foF2 (G/Town) -	2012/01/27 14:00	UT is	6.613 MHz
Current foF2 (L/vale) -	2012/01/26 02:45	UT is	3.450 MHz
Current foF2 (Madimbo) -	2012/01/27 05:00	UT is	5.300 MHz
Current Ap-Index -	2012/01/27 16:20	SAST is	10

Green border - OK, Yellow border - beware, Red border - problems for HF comms.

The Font colours for T-Index and FoF2 values have the following meanings:

Black - information less than 3 hours old at time of web page update - can be used for current activities.

Dark Grey - information between 3 and 6 hours old at time of web page update

Light Grey - Information more than 6 hours old and cannot be used for current activities - for info only

The WCI (Wind Compensated Index), or Se Solar index works well with IONCAP/ICEPAC/VOACAP for near real-time Ionospheric evaluations

**T-indices do not stay fixed on one value for days on end. We therefore provide the ranges of values the T-indices are expected to reach during the course of the days indicated, with an average value that can be used for daily frequency predictions.

***Relative to the published monthly average predicted T-indices

If you are new to space weather, please click here for an introduction to the subject.

New long term T-Indices (1938-2015) have been released (Prepared at 03:04:00 UT on 03 Jan 2012 - Sydney) please get the latest values via a link in the bulletins section, or go straight to the LATEST MONTHLY T-INDICES PAGE to get updates for your ASAPS/WASAPS data bases. A text-only version which can be used to automatically update ASAPS and WASAPS data bases can be downloaded from here.

We have a daily HF frequency predictions page between large centres in Southern Africa, as well as for special links as required. Click here to visit the page.

We have a page containing links to some raw information that could be useful to more advanced users.

Latest Available Ionograms from Hermanus, Grahamstown, Louisvale and Madimbo.